After the Conflict: Power Struggles and Leadership in Post-War Gaza
Recent calls for a ceasefire in Gaza have sparked intense speculation regarding the future governance of the region. Various perspectives have emerged about the potential direction the Gaza administration may take. This article explores these views, highlighting the intricate dynamics involved in the ongoing situation.
Historically, three primary perspectives have shaped discussions around Gaza’s governance:
- The Zionist Perspective: This view advocates for a strategy labeled as “neither Fatah nor Hamas.” Proponents aim for complete annexation or division of the Gaza Strip through the implementation of the “Generals” Plan. This initiative, backed by the United States, seeks to dismantle resistance in Gaza and reconstitute the area into an economic zone, in line with the “Deal of the Century.”
- European Union Plan: The EU’s approach supports replacing Hamas with the Palestinian Authority (PA), while maintaining established borders. This plan has garnered backing from Paris and Riyadh, advocating for a more controlled transition of power in Gaza.
- American Strategy: According to this plan, the PA would assume control over Gaza’s administrative and security functions, cooperating with international forces and elements within Gaza’s civil society.
Recent reports indicate that American sources believe the Biden administration’s plan has a greater likelihood of being implemented in Gaza. On January 14, 2025, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken addressed ongoing developments in the West Asian region at the Atlantic Council. He discussed the Gaza war and predicted a collaborative governance model involving the PA and international forces. Blinken asserted that the PA has undergone reforms and is poised to manage essential public services such as health, education, and water supply in Gaza.
Furthermore, Blinken emphasized that the US and Israel would not permit Hamas to retain authority over the Palestinian Authority following the Al-Aqsa Storm Operation.
Prior to the unsuccessful attempt to establish a temporary dock for humanitarian aid in Gaza, Mohammad Dahlan, a former head of the PA’s Preventive Security in Gaza, emerged as a potential administrator. However, his chances appear diminished due to various political dynamics. Dahlan, who has past affiliations with the conservative Sunni bloc and Mossad, has been blacklisted in Turkey. Despite this, media outlets close to the UAE and Western allies have circulated rumors that a joint Washington-London plan may involve Dahlan in Gaza’s governance.
In an interview with The Economist, Dahlan rejected the notion of leading Gaza, suggesting instead that a technocratic government comprising members from both Hamas and Fatah should lead the region. According to a report by the New York Times, once this technocratic government is established, Saudi-Emirati security forces would oversee the reconstruction of Gaza.
Another candidate for leadership in Gaza is Salam Fayyad, a former PA Prime Minister and economics graduate from the University of Texas. Fayyad, who has received support from major powers like Paris, Washington, and Tel Aviv, has recently condemned Hamas’ actions and expressed sympathy for Zionist perspectives. His name has been mentioned as a leading candidate by Israeli National Radio.
Hossein al-Sheikh, currently the Secretary General of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Executive Committee, is also in contention. Al-Sheikh, a founding member of political committees post-Oslo Peace Treaty, is supported by Riyadh and aims to outpace his rivals for Gaza’s leadership. Like others in the PA, he has criticized the October 7 operation but advocates for collaboration with Israel to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians. Notably, Hamas has labeled him as a figure associated with Israel.
Among these candidates, one name stands out: Marwan Barghouti. A prominent Palestinian political leader, Barghouti has been imprisoned for his involvement in attacks against Israel. Reliable sources indicate that Hamas has pushed for Barghouti’s release in prisoner exchange negotiations, speculating that he might lead the Palestinian Authority or Gaza. Barghouti, a key figure in the first and second Palestinian intifadas, has advocated for armed resistance and the establishment of a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders.
According to a survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, a significant 90% of participants called for Mahmoud Abbas to resign from the PA. Barghouti emerged as the most favored leader among the populace. This popularity may explain why Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and right-wing cabinet members oppose Barghouti’s release; analysts suggest that Tel Aviv prefers to maintain a divide between the West Bank and Gaza rather than unify them under a leader with strong public support.
In conclusion, the potential re-establishment of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza raises questions about its ability to sustain control. Historical precedents indicate that Hamas could quickly regain power, as seen in the 2004 elections following the PA’s initial governance. Polls reveal significant support for Hamas among Palestinians, presenting a challenging scenario for the Zionist regime.
The future of Gaza governance remains uncertain, with two challenging paths ahead: recognizing Hamas’s influence or risking considerable military and humanitarian losses. As Hamas rebuilds its military capabilities amidst ongoing conflict, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of governance in the war-torn Gaza Strip.
