Expect Below-Average Rainfall: Six-Week Weather Forecast Reveals Normal Conditions Ahead!

TEHRAN – The Metrological Organization has recently provided insights into the anticipated precipitation and temperature trends across the country for the upcoming weeks. From April 8 to 20, it is projected that average rainfall will be less than normal, while the period from April 21 to May 18 is expected to see normal precipitation levels. Understanding these weather patterns is crucial for agriculture and water resource management.

In the first week, stretching from April 8 to 13, the forecast indicates that rainfall will be below average. Specifically, accumulated precipitation is expected to range between 20 to 70 mm in the middle Zagros and the western parts of northwest Iran, as reported by ISNA. Additionally, temperature variations will also be notable:

• Northwest, west, and Caspian Sea coast: 1-3°C above normal
• Eastern half of the country: 6-10°C above normal
• Other areas: 3-6°C above normal

These unprecedented high temperatures could lead to significant climatic implications, particularly in the eastern regions of Iran.

Moving into the second week, from April 14 to 31, the trend of below-normal rainfall is expected to continue. However, in the coastal provinces of the Caspian Sea and some northeastern areas, precipitation levels may return to normal. Here’s what to expect:

• Accumulated precipitation: 20 to 50 mm from central Alborz to the northwest
• Temperature forecast: 3-6°C above normal in the southeast, while other areas may experience a drop of up to 3°C below normal
• Notable decrease: The largest temperature drop is anticipated along the Caspian coast and in the northwest region

As we approach the third week, from April 21 to 27, rainfall is expected to fluctuate between normal and below-normal levels. Temperature changes are projected as follows:

• Caspian coast, east, and southeast: 1-3°C above normal
• Other regions: 1-6°C above normal

In the subsequent weeks, from the fourth to the sixth week, average rainfall is expected to remain below normal. However, temperatures may stabilize with anomalies estimated between +1°C to +3°C.

The Metrological Organization reported that as of April 5, the total rainfall recorded in the country since the beginning of spring was merely 14.5 mm, indicating a significant 28.1 percent decrease from the long-term average of 20.2 mm. This statistic highlights the ongoing challenges faced by various regions in Iran.

Reviewing the previous water year, which spanned from September 22, 2023, to September 22, 2024, the country recorded a total precipitation of 252.7 mm, reflecting a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year. Initially concerning low precipitation levels at the start of this water year saw improvements over time; however, the cumulative effect of several drought years has left many provinces grappling with water shortages, according to IRNA.

Here’s a summary of the rainfall data from the previous water year:

• Total recorded rainfall: 252.7 mm
• Comparison to last year: 19 percent increase from 212.9 mm
• Long-term average: 248.7 mm, showing a 2 percent increase

In conclusion, while Iran experienced a notable increase in rainfall during the previous water year, the lasting impact of prolonged drought conditions continues to challenge several provinces. The upcoming weeks will be critical in assessing how weather patterns will affect agricultural productivity and water resource availability across the country.