London School of Economics Professor: HTS Leaders Unlikely to Embrace Democratic Rule
In a significant shift in Syria’s political landscape, the emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has raised concerns and hopes alike. A professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, Fawaz A. Gerges, sheds light on HTS’s transition from the Idlib province to Damascus and its implications for the future of governance in Syria. In his article for Foreign Affairs magazine, Gerges discusses how HTS’s leadership is establishing a new government that largely excludes secular and moderately religious opposition groups, raising questions about the future legitimacy of the regime.
After over fifty years of the Assad family’s rule, the political climate in Syria is poised for change. While the ousting of Bashar al-Assad may seem sudden, it is closely linked to the 2011 protests that ignited the Arab Spring across the region. As Syrians rejoice in their newfound freedom, they are faced with challenges similar to those encountered by other Arab nations post-revolution.
- Historical Context: The revolutions in the Middle East were originally driven by a diverse coalition of societal actors, such as secular nationalists, students, and left-wing activists.
- Power Shifts: In many cases, these movements were ultimately overtaken by hardline groups, leading to a shift from political authoritarianism to religious governance.
- Consequences of War: Years of civil war have decimated Syria, resulting in millions displaced and a significant loss of life, leaving the country fractured along ethnic and religious lines.
HTS, while distancing itself from al Qaeda, maintains its roots in Salafi Islam. The group has presented itself as a moderate alternative, promising inclusivity in governance. HTS’s leader, now known as Ahmad al-Sharaa, has embraced a more diplomatic approach, donning a business suit instead of military fatigues, and seeking international legitimacy.
Despite these efforts, there are signs that HTS’s commitment to inclusivity may be waning. Gerges notes a troubling trend towards consolidating power within HTS as they establish control over vital institutions in Syria.
- Promises vs. Actions: Initial commitments to form a transitional authority with broad consultation have been undermined by delays and a concentration of power within HTS.
- Military Integration: With support from Turkey, HTS has integrated various rebel factions into its military structure, sidelining secular elements of the opposition.
- Exclusion of Secular Groups: The new government has effectively marginalized secular nationalists and independent activists, raising alarms about the future of democracy in Syria.
Sharaa’s leadership style is characterized by a mixture of conservative Sunnism and elements of Syrian nationalism. His government is receiving mentorship from Turkish officials, indicating that external influences will play a significant role in shaping Syria’s political future. However, the legitimacy of the new regime is likely to be grounded in a Salafi interpretation of governance, rather than democratic principles.
As Gerges emphasizes, the Arab Spring was initially fueled by a wide array of activists advocating for equal rights and civil liberties. However, history suggests that extremist groups often emerge as the primary beneficiaries of post-revolutionary power vacuums.
This reality poses a significant challenge for Syria, where the potential for a smooth political transition remains uncertain. The absence of trust among key stakeholders complicates efforts to forge a new path forward. To facilitate a more inclusive transition, Gerges suggests:
- Reducing external meddling in Syria’s internal affairs, particularly from neighboring countries.
- Encouraging the participation of Kurdish leaders and other minority groups in the decision-making process.
- Promoting a balanced government that honors the aspirations of various factions while maintaining national unity.
Gerges also highlights the importance of the Syrian National Council’s call for UN oversight in the drafting of a new constitution, advocating for free and fair elections within a reasonable timeframe. The international community must engage with a diverse range of local leaders—beyond just HTS—to ensure a broader representation in governance.
As Syrians continue to grapple with the aftermath of conflict, the urgent need for humanitarian assistance and economic revitalization cannot be overstated. With 90% of the population living below the poverty line, lifting sanctions and facilitating aid delivery are critical for stabilizing the region.
In conclusion, while the political future of Syria is fraught with challenges, there remains a glimmer of hope for a more inclusive governance model. The world must hold HTS accountable for its commitments to inclusivity while supporting the broader spectrum of Syrian society in reclaiming their agency and shaping their nation’s future.
