ISIS Resurgence: From Speculation to Alarming Reality

As the situation in Syria continues to evolve, the potential for an ISIS resurgence has become a pressing concern. Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government, experts are divided on the likelihood of ISIS’s return. While some argue that the group’s organizational structure has deteriorated beyond recovery, others suggest that current conditions may create fertile ground for its revival. This article delves into the various factors that could influence the re-emergence of ISIS, the obstacles it faces, and the early signs of its resurgence.

Factors Influencing ISIS’s Possible Resurgence

Several key factors contribute to the potential re-emergence of ISIS in Syria:

• Power Vacuum: The absence of a strong central government creates opportunities for extremism, leading to insecurity and chaos.
• Weak State Institutions: Post-Assad Syria’s administrative institutions are fragile, allowing ISIS and other extremist factions to exploit the situation.
• Regional Instability: Countries like Iraq, which are currently battling the remnants of ISIS, could see an uptick in terrorism and cross-border insurgencies.
• Disillusioned Communities: If Syrian internal communities feel marginalized in the new power structure, they risk becoming vulnerable to ISIS.
• Competition Among Extremist Groups: The chaos that follows Assad’s fall may incite competition among extremist factions, potentially enabling ISIS to re-emerge from this turmoil.

Obstacles to ISIS Resurgence

Despite the potential for ISIS to regain strength, several obstacles stand in its way:

• Global Counterterrorism Efforts: International coalitions have significantly diminished ISIS’s operational capabilities, and ongoing efforts can further prevent its resurgence.
• Regional Cooperation: Neighboring countries, along with local actors like the Kurds, recognize their shared interest in obstructing ISIS’s return. Establishing a stable and inclusive order in post-Assad Syria is crucial for regional and global powers.
• Local Resistance: Many Syrian communities, having suffered under ISIS rule, are likely to resist any attempts at the group’s return.

Signs of ISIS Resurgence

Recent developments indicate potential signs of ISIS’s resurgence:

• Increase in Terrorist Attacks: The number of terrorist attacks attributed to ISIS in Syria more than doubled in the first half of 2024 compared to the same timeframe in 2023, with 153 attacks reported.
• Reported Attacks: A CENTCOM statement from July revealed that ISIS conducted 551 attacks in areas under U.S. and U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces control during the first half of 2024.
• Rebuilding Efforts: Since 2020, ISIS has been systematically re-establishing its presence in regions of Syria where the Assad government has struggled to maintain order. In 2023 alone, ISIS operations resulted in 82 deaths in areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces and 566 deaths in government-controlled territories.
• Logistics and Supply Chains: In the past six months, ISIS has enhanced its logistics and supply chains, notably reintroducing the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) last utilized in 2019.
• Urban Penetration: In 2024, ISIS has expanded its activities into urban areas, targeting strategic locations such as oil and gas facilities and military checkpoints.
• Conflict with Syrian Democratic Forces: Turkey views the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an extension of the PKK and has labeled them as terrorists. Consequently, the SDF has faced increased assaults from both the Syrian National Army, acting as a Turkish proxy force, and ISIS. This ongoing pressure may force the Kurds to split their operational resources between two fronts, potentially creating an opportunity for ISIS to regain strength.

In conclusion, while ISIS faces significant obstacles to its resurgence, the current geopolitical landscape in Syria presents both challenges and opportunities. The interplay between local communities, regional powers, and global counterterrorism efforts will be critical in determining the future of ISIS in the region. Vigilance and collaborative action are essential to prevent a resurgence of this extremist group.