Strategic Moves: How US Presence in the Caucasus is Shaping Russia’s Isolation

In the ever-evolving geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus, Iran remains steadfast in its commitment to fostering regional peace and stability. This commitment emphasizes the importance of respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all neighboring states. Recognizing the strategic significance of the South Caucasus, Iran advocates for diplomatic dialogue and cooperative security measures that deter foreign interference and uphold regional interests.

To gain deeper insights into Iran’s perspective on recent developments in the Caucasus region, we interviewed Mohsen Pakaeen, an Iranian political expert and former diplomat. Below is the full text of our interview, which highlights key issues and Iran’s strategic position.

1. Overall, how do you assess the current political-security situation in the South Caucasus, and what position do you see for Iran in these developments?

   The South Caucasus, following the liberation of Karabakh and its return to the Republic of Azerbaijan, is evolving towards a new security architecture characterized by a strong “peace discourse.” Following the quadrilateral meeting held in Prague in October 2022, key leaders from the region pledged their commitment to the United Nations Charter. This includes:

   • Recognition of each other’s territorial integrity.
   • Affirmation of the 1991 Almaty Declaration.

   In the Almaty Declaration, signed on December 21, 1991, the signatory countries, including Azerbaijan and Armenia, agreed to respect each other’s territorial integrity and maintain the inviolability of existing international borders. Consequently, Karabakh was returned to Azerbaijan, while Armenia retained sovereignty over the route known as Zangazur. This arrangement effectively negated Azerbaijan’s territorial claims over Zangazur, which could have disrupted Iran’s border with Armenia.

   Currently, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalize a peace agreement are advancing, with both parties opting for direct discussions without mediation.

2. What do you think are the implications of the Zangezur Corridor for various actors?

   It is evident that the United States aims to weaken and isolate Iran in the region. However, Iran shares a significant border of over 400 kilometers along the Aras River with the South Caucasus, making it a dominant player in the area. No foreign nation can undertake any significant initiative against Iran within this corridor.

   Should Western countries attempt to intervene, they would expose themselves to serious vulnerabilities. The US is unlikely to engage in direct military conflict in the South Caucasus, similar to its indirect approach in Ukraine, where it used Ukraine as leverage against Russia. The primary goal of the US presence in the Caucasus is to isolate Russia while fostering tensions between regional nations, particularly Azerbaijan and Armenia, as their relations with Russia have become strained.

   Russia is expected to react strongly to any threats in the Caucasus, as it is unlikely to relinquish its influence in the region. If Russia fails to act, Iran is prepared to counter US objectives independently.

3. Regarding the visit of the Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister to Tehran, what achievements can be anticipated from this visit?

   At this crucial juncture, consultations with Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia are imperative. During discussions with the Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister, Iran expressed its support for establishing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Key points addressed include:

   • Agreement to remove blockages in communication networks.
   • Assurance that the Zangezur Corridor should not alter the geopolitical landscape of the region.
   • Emphasis on maintaining Iran’s access to other communication routes.

   Both parties acknowledged the risks posed by US presence in the region. The Armenian government assured Iran that it would prioritize peace and regional stability when making decisions regarding communication routes. It is hoped that Armenia will act prudently and resist any military or security interventions that might arise under the guise of economic investment aimed at pursuing hegemonic goals in the Caucasus.

4. If Azerbaijan insists on advancing the Zangazur project, what diplomatic measures or alternative actions can Iran consider?

   Primarily, Iran will engage in diplomatic consultations with regional countries, including Azerbaijan, Russia, Armenia, and Turkey. Key objectives include:

   • Raising awareness about the dangers associated with the US presence in the region.
   • Encouraging Armenia to avoid actions that might disrupt the current peace discourse.

In summary, the dynamics in the South Caucasus are complex and require careful navigation. As Iran continues to advocate for peace and stability, its active engagement in diplomatic efforts is crucial for maintaining regional integrity and preventing external influences that could destabilize the area.