Unpacking the Myths: The Truth Behind the Abraham Accords

U.S. President Donald Trump is making strides to solidify his legacy in the Middle East, particularly through the Abraham Accords. This initiative, which aims to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab nations, is a focal point of Trump’s foreign policy. As Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, noted at the Doha Forum, “There’s just no way that President Trump isn’t going to be interested in trying to expand the Abraham Accords.”

The Abraham Accords were established in 2020, marking a significant diplomatic achievement during Trump’s first term. These accords facilitated normalization agreements between Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates. Interestingly, this initiative has garnered support not only from Trump’s allies but also from political opponents, including current President Joe Biden.

Biden has taken the baton, embracing the Abraham Accords while aiming to forge a groundbreaking deal with Saudi Arabia, the most influential Arab state. The proposed agreement would allow for Israeli-Saudi normalization in exchange for an enhanced strategic partnership with the United States, akin to that of a NATO ally. This potential deal represents a monumental step in Arab-Israeli relations, reminiscent of Egypt’s historic peace treaty with Israel in 1979.

However, the ideal of peace and stability that the Abraham Accords promise has been overshadowed by ongoing conflicts and instability in the region. The current approach to Arab-Israeli diplomacy tends to overlook the critical Palestinian issue. Traditionally, Arab nations maintained that normalization with Israel should occur only after establishing an independent Palestinian state. The decision by Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE to normalize relations effectively diminished the Palestinians’ leverage against Israel.

The recent Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military response in Gaza have severely impacted the trajectory of Israeli-Saudi normalization efforts. This situation highlights the undeniable truth that the Palestinian question cannot be disregarded in the pursuit of Arab-Israeli normalization.

Despite these challenges, Trump is eager to fulfill the vision laid out in the Abraham Accords by securing a U.S.-Israeli-Saudi mega-deal. Trump continues to prioritize Israel’s integration into the region over the Palestinian cause. Greenblatt suggests it is a misconception to believe that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would automatically lead to stability in the Middle East.

Critics of the Abraham Accords argue that peace and security in the region cannot be achieved without addressing the Palestinian dilemma. The premise that regional harmony could exist while sidelining the Palestinians has been challenged by recent events. The cease-fire agreement that took effect this week underscores the importance of the Palestinian issue in ensuring regional security and stability. It also opens the door for renewed Israeli-Saudi discussions under Trump’s influence.

Despite being regarded as a diplomatic success, the Abraham Accords were based on several flawed assumptions. Much of the enthusiasm surrounding these agreements stemmed from a collective desire, particularly within Western capitals, to support initiatives that favor Israel, often at the expense of U.S. policy objectives, such as a two-state solution. This tendency to equate “good for Israel” with “good for peace” has been a significant reason for the failure of U.S.-led diplomacy over the decades.

• The Abraham Accords were designed to bypass the Palestinian question.
• They suppressed Palestinian agency, assuming Palestinians would accept imposed solutions.
• The accords signaled a shift among certain Arab states, prioritizing their interests over Palestinian aspirations.

This shift has rendered Palestinians increasingly vulnerable, as the accords removed one of their few remaining sources of leverage: pressure from sympathetic Arab nations. With the absence of constraints on Israel, Palestinians are facing heightened risks amid escalating violence and occupation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s return to power has only intensified these issues, as his government represents the most right-wing administration in Israel’s history.

Furthermore, claims that Arab states could use their relationships with Israel to advance Palestinian rights have not materialized. Countries like Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE have not intervened to halt actions against Palestinians, such as home demolitions or increased settlement activity. Instead, relationships with Israeli settlers and investments in occupation infrastructure have continued without restraint.

Even with the recent cease-fire providing a glimmer of hope, achieving Saudi normalization with Israel remains a daunting task for the Trump administration. The events of October 7 and the resultant violence in Gaza have exacerbated public sentiment across the Arab world against Israel, complicating any potential agreement.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, initially seeking a mere rhetorical commitment from Israel regarding Palestinian statehood, is now demanding tangible actions toward this goal. Frustrated with U.S. mediation efforts, Saudi Arabia is collaborating with France to propose a new initiative aimed at salvaging the two-state solution.

The current Saudi stance reflects the broader Arab sentiment, with a recent summit calling for expelling Israel from the United Nations, starkly opposing any normalization efforts. The challenges are compounded by the International Criminal Court’s indictments of Israeli leaders for war crimes.

The increasing costs of engaging with Israel, juxtaposed with diminishing returns, make it evident that the promise of the Abraham Accords has not materialized as intended. The past 15 months have been marked by violence and instability, undermining the premise of peaceful integration of Israel into the region.

In conclusion, the Abraham Accords have not only failed to deliver peace and security in the Middle East but have also contributed to escalating tensions. The belief that Arab-Israeli normalization could advance without addressing Palestinian rights has proven to be both misguided and perilous. Recent events underscore the necessity for the Trump administration to reassess its approach to Middle Eastern diplomacy.

For further insights, Khaled Elgindy is a Visiting Scholar at Georgetown University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies and author of “Blind Spot: America and the Palestinians, From Balfour to Trump.”