Nationwide Crisis: Land Subsidence Impacts 254 Regions, Warns Official

Land subsidence is a growing concern in Iran, affecting over 254 areas across various provinces, according to the head of the Crisis Management Organization, Hossein Zafari. This phenomenon, marked by significant ground sinking, poses severe risks to infrastructure, historical sites, and the overall environment. This article delves into the causes and implications of land subsidence in Iran, particularly focusing on Tehran, a city grappling with this pressing issue.

In recent statements, Zafari highlighted that Kerman, Khorasan Razavi, and Tehran provinces are the most impacted regions. The phenomenon of land subsidence varies in severity, with measurements ranging from 2 to 18 centimeters across different areas. These alarming figures underscore the critical need for awareness and action.

Several factors contribute to land subsidence in Iran:

• Population Concentration: The rapid urbanization and concentration of people in cities have exacerbated the situation.
• Climate Change: Shifts in climate patterns have led to lower rainfall and increased droughts.
• Over-extraction of Groundwater: The excessive withdrawal of groundwater for agricultural and industrial needs has severely depleted aquifers.

Land subsidence manifests in two distinct ways:

1. Uniform Subsidence: This type occurs evenly across a plain, often without visible signs on the surface.
2. Asymmetrical Subsidence: This variant results in noticeable surface damage, indicating more severe ground movement.

Zafari pointed out that the most high-risk areas for subsidence in Tehran include the south, southwest, southeast, and southern regions. The Crisis Management Organization is actively working on preventive measures against excessive water consumption and aims to reform laws related to construction and maintenance in these vulnerable areas. Their primary mission is to monitor and enforce necessary actions by responsible institutions.

Water resources in Iran rely heavily on rainfall, snowmelt, and underground aquifers. However, decades of over-extraction have led to a critical depletion of these groundwater resources. As global water supplies dwindle due to climate change and population growth, many industries and farms increasingly depend on groundwater, further aggravating the issue.

As groundwater is pumped excessively, the ground surface begins to sink, leading to the phenomenon known as land subsidence. Tehran, home to over 15 million residents, is particularly vulnerable. The National Cartographic Center (NCC) of Iran has reported alarming rates of subsidence, with some areas sinking as much as 31 centimeters per year. This crisis poses a significant threat to vital infrastructure, including historical sites and modern facilities like the Imam Khomeini International Airport.

Recent satellite data from scientists at the GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences revealed that the area surrounding the airport is sinking at a rate of approximately 5 centimeters per year, highlighting the widespread impact of this issue.

Unlike earthquakes or severe weather events that capture media attention, land subsidence progresses slowly and often goes unnoticed, yet its consequences are profound. Contributing factors include:

• Scarcity of Rainfall: A notable lack of precipitation has exacerbated the situation.
• Uneven Water Distribution: Disparities in water availability complicate management efforts.
• Climatic Variations: Extreme weather patterns contribute to fluctuations in water supply.
• Mining Activities: Extraction processes can further destabilize the ground.
• Population Growth: The rapid increase in Tehran’s population has made water distribution increasingly challenging.

The Amirkabir Dam, a crucial water supply source for Tehran, has experienced a 7% reduction in capacity, leading to concerns about the region’s water sustainability. Similarly, the Latyan Dam, operational for decades, plays a vital role in supplying water and electricity, yet has also seen fluctuations in its reservoir levels.

Currently, 70% of Tehran’s water is sourced from five nearby dams, including the Amirkabir and Latyan Dams. Recent reports indicate that as of early March, these reservoirs are only 13% full, a stark contrast to past levels where the Amirkabir Dam was 93% full just five years ago.

The Iranian Ministry of Energy has reported a significant drop in precipitation, highlighting that rainfall has barely reached 93.8 mm from October to mid-March, a 60% decrease compared to the national average. This drastic reduction underscores the need for immediate reforms in water management practices.

To combat this crisis, experts recommend:

• Reducing Water Use: Implementing measures to minimize waste and promote water recycling.
• Optimizing Water Usage: Improving efficiency can help alleviate the pressure on groundwater supplies.

In light of these challenges, President Masoud Pezeshkian has proposed relocating Iran’s political and economic center away from Tehran, emphasizing the need to address the city’s environmental and infrastructural issues. He advocates for moving closer to southern water sources, indicating that current development trends in Tehran are unsustainable.

As Tehran grapples with air pollution and water scarcity, the interconnection between these issues becomes evident. The air quality directly impacts water storage, affecting river systems downstream. The concerning trend of groundwater over-extraction has risen from 10 cubic meters per second in 2020 to 17.5 in 2023, highlighting the urgent need for reform.

Without immediate action and sustainable management practices, Tehran risks facing escalating threats to its infrastructure, heritage sites, and population. The unsustainable practices currently in place will ultimately lead to stricter restrictions on water use and supply cuts, making the current availability seem like a distant dream. As the world shifts its focus towards land and energy resources, the future battles may very well center around water, a resource more vital than any other.