Long-Term Rainfall Plummets by Over 88%: A Dramatic Shift in Weather Patterns

TEHRAN – Iran is currently experiencing a severe water crisis, as highlighted by the alarming rainfall statistics recorded since the start of the current water year on September 23. The dramatic decline in precipitation has raised concerns about water security and the potential impacts on agriculture and regional stability.

As of December 5, the country has received only 4.7 mm of rainfall, marking a staggering 88.4 percent decrease from the long-term average of 40.2 mm, according to the Meteorological Organization. This unprecedented drought is affecting all provinces, leading to a nationwide state of concern.

Here are some key rainfall statistics that illustrate the severity of the situation:

• From November 22 to December 5, total precipitation was recorded at only 0.8 mm, which is 94.1 percent lower than the long-term average of 13.2 mm.
• In the week from November 29 to December 5, the country saw a mere 0.7 mm of rainfall, a decrease of 87.5 percent compared to the normal average of 6 mm.
• Bushehr province reported a complete absence of rainfall, with 100 percent less rain than normal, while 21 other provinces experienced 91 percent less precipitation.

Tehran province is particularly affected, with a long-term average rainfall of 55.9 mm, yet only receiving 2.2 mm this year, reflecting a dramatic 96 percent reduction in precipitation. This decline adds to the growing concerns about water availability in urban areas.

The drought conditions in Iran are among the most severe in history. Nevertheless, the Meteorological Organization forecasts a potential change starting December 7, predicting that rainfall for the first two months of winter could return to normal levels or even exceed last year’s totals. However, Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, cautions that water tension will likely persist despite these projections.

Over the previous Iranian year (March 2023 – March 2024), regions in southern Iran witnessed precipitation levels 50 to 75 percent below normal. The country has been grappling with consecutive droughts for the past five years, leading to significant reductions in rainfall during autumn, winter, and spring.

Vazifeh noted that the last water year (September 22, 2024 – September 22, 2025) was particularly exceptional, concluding with only 142.3 mm of precipitation, which is a 39.4 percent drop from the long-term average of 234.9 mm.

During the last summer month, only 4.1 mm of rainfall was recorded, a slight decrease of 2.5 percent from the long-term average of 4.2 mm. Over the entire summer, total rainfall stood at 8 mm, which is a significant 27.9 percent decline from the long-term figure of 11.1 mm.

According to official data, groundwater levels and dam storage have seen a noticeable decline, leading to heightened water stress, particularly in densely populated areas. This situation poses a serious threat to water security, raising concerns over potential land subsidence and exacerbating the ongoing drought crisis.

Iran’s water crisis has far-reaching implications, threatening not only the nation’s agricultural sector but also regional stability and global food markets. The urgent need for sustainable water management strategies has never been more critical as the country navigates these unprecedented challenges.

As we move forward, it remains imperative for policymakers and stakeholders to address the root causes of this crisis and implement effective solutions to ensure a secure water future for all Iranians.