Lebanese Cabinet Set to Address Arms Monopoly in Key Meeting Next Week

In recent developments, the Lebanese cabinet is set to meet next Tuesday in response to significant remarks made by US envoy Thomas Barrack. He stated on social media platform X, “As long as Hezbollah retains its weapons, words will not suffice. The government and Hezbollah must fully engage and act now.” This statement comes amid rising tensions regarding Hezbollah’s military armament and its implications for Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Furthermore, Michel Issa, the US President’s nominee for ambassador to Lebanon, emphasized before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee the urgency of addressing Hezbollah’s armaments. He stated that disarming Hezbollah is not just optional, but a necessary step for restoring Lebanon’s sovereignty, declaring, “the time to act is now.”

During his testimony, Issa drew a stark comparison, describing Hezbollah as “a wounded bear that can still hurt.” He elaborated on the situation by explaining:

• Hezbollah’s Political Strategy: Issa noted that the group is likely stalling its disarmament due to upcoming parliamentary elections next year, fearing that relinquishing its weapons could jeopardize its electoral prospects.
• Iran’s Influence: He remarked that Hezbollah’s loyalty lies not with Lebanon, but with Iran, a country that shows little regard for the Lebanese populace.
• Consequences of Inaction: Issa warned that Hezbollah understands the potential repercussions of failing to disarm, stating, “if it does not surrender its weapons, something will happen.”

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has been advocating for the cabinet session to address the “implementation of the ministerial statement.” Following his return from Paris, where he met with President Macron, he attempted to persuade President Joseph Aoun of the urgency to convene before Aoun’s departure to Algeria. However, sources indicated that Aoun believes the timing is not appropriate for such discussions.

In related news, Lebanese officials received information through various diplomatic channels indicating that Israel is unwilling to cease hostilities. Reports suggest that US envoy Thomas Barrack is not expected to return imminently. There are indications from Washington and Tel Aviv that future military actions may not solely target Hezbollah; rather, Israel may take a more aggressive stance should the Lebanese authorities fail to address Hezbollah’s arsenal seriously.

Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces, voiced his concerns about the potential fallout from delaying disarmament, stating, “Lebanon faces two options: a government decision to dissolve military and security organizations or face a hot summer, or at best, a bad summer.”

In an interview with Al-Jumhuriya, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri approached the negotiations with Barrack with caution, expressing his frustration with those who exaggerate the potential for a large-scale war against Lebanon. He remarked, “It is surprising and contradicts the spirit of national responsibility.” Berri acknowledged Aoun’s approach to the negotiations and the weapons issue as commendable.

Salam communicated to Aoun the urgency expressed by Macron, stating that Israel would not wait long for Lebanon to take practical steps to address the situation. He emphasized the pressure from Paris to convene a government session and comply with American demands, particularly regarding UNIFIL’s operations in southern Lebanon. Israel is reportedly seeking substantial changes to UNIFIL’s operational protocols, including autonomy in operations without coordination with the Lebanese Army and conducting independent inspections to prevent the presence of weapons or militants.

The Israeli narrative regarding threats to Lebanon is being amplified by various media outlets and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). A report by Maariv echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Hezbollah remains a formidable force despite current challenges. IDF Northern Command officials claimed that “Hezbollah has not been defeated, but is merely licking its wounds.”

Moreover, the report speculated on various scenarios that Hezbollah might pursue, including small raids or attempts to launch significant attacks. They indicated that these maneuvers could involve targeting IDF personnel or even kidnapping soldiers. Maariv concluded that “Hezbollah possesses secret capabilities and facilities, but they are not similar to what is happening in Gaza.”

Furthermore, the Alma think-tank released a report discussing the IDF’s strategy to continue its policy of targeted assassinations aimed at preventing the emergence of new Hezbollah leadership. The report suggested that Israel should intensify pressure on Hezbollah by targeting its civilian support base, which could include actions against individuals outside Hezbollah’s military framework.

Concerns regarding Israel’s intentions towards Lebanon have been echoed through diplomatic channels, with UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, expressing apprehensions about a potential Israeli intervention to curb Hezbollah’s capabilities. This concern arises from the perceived inadequacy of Lebanon’s response to Barrack’s proposals, which do not align with Israeli expectations.