Iran’s $2 Billion Oil Boom: How Biden’s Presidency Fuels Record Exports

During Joe Biden’s presidency, Iran’s oil exports have seen a remarkable surge, with approximately 2 billion barrels exported. This figure marks a significant increase compared to the volumes recorded from 2019 to 2021. Insights from oil tanker tracking companies, such as Kpler, highlight this dramatic rise in Iran’s oil trade.

At the beginning of Biden’s administration in January 2021, Iran’s daily oil exports had plummeted to less than 400,000 barrels. However, by last year, those exports skyrocketed to an average of 1.6 million barrels daily. According to the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), another organization that monitors Iranian oil tankers, “In 2024, Iran exported 587 million barrels of oil, an increase of 10.75% compared to 2023’s 530 million barrels. Over the four years since the start of the Biden Administration, with less than one month remaining in its term, Iran has exported a cumulative total of nearly 1.98 billion barrels of oil.”

Kpler’s data further reveals that during Biden’s four-year term, Iran exported approximately 1.64 billion barrels of crude oil and gas condensates. Additionally, Iran’s daily fuel oil (mazut) exports averaged around 230,000 barrels during this period, consistent with UANI’s reports.

The financial implications of these exports are significant. The total value of Iran’s crude oil and condensate exports during Biden’s presidency, excluding costs related to evading sanctions, is estimated at around $135 billion. Furthermore, the value of Iran’s exported fuel oil during this time is approximately $25 billion.

Iran’s oil pricing strategy remains opaque, particularly concerning its primary customer, China. Estimates indicate that discounts of $10 to $30 per barrel could significantly impact the overall revenue projections. Tehran has also been known to take measures to obscure the origin of its oil before shipment to China, raising questions about payment structures that may involve barter rather than cash transactions.

In a striking statistic, 91% of Iran’s total crude oil, condensates, and fuel oil exports in the last year were attributed to China. However, despite the upward trend in exports, there was a notable decline in volume, dropping to below 1.3 million barrels per day during the last two months of the year. This decrease can be linked to new US sanctions on 35 tankers carrying Iranian oil and the political shift following Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. This has raised the probability of reinstating the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran.

Moreover, Iran’s oil clientele in China, notably the small independent refineries known as “teapots,” are facing mounting pressure from the Chinese government. These refineries are being urged to either enhance their operations or shut down due to escalating pollution levels and inefficiencies. Recent reports indicate that at least three Chinese teapot refineries have been decommissioned in recent months.

Over the past few years, Iran has leveraged a “ghost fleet” of hundreds of oil tankers to discreetly market its oil. UANI has identified 132 new vessels involved in smuggling Iranian oil in 2024, bringing the total number of ghost fleet tankers tracked to 477 vessels. “In 2024, the organization’s intelligence led to over 330 flag revocations and contributed to the designation of 139 vessels by the US government. Notably, out of the 139 tankers sanctioned this year, 110 were previously identified by UANI on its Ghost Armada list, showcasing UANI’s pivotal role in preemptive tracking,” the organization stated.

The decline in Iran’s daily oil exports to below 1.3 million barrels in November and December last year coincides with President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government setting a target of exporting 1.85 million barrels of crude oil and condensates daily in the next Iranian fiscal year, which commences on March 21. This ambitious goal reflects Iran’s ongoing efforts to stabilize and potentially increase its oil export capabilities amidst a challenging international landscape.