Iran Prepares for Potential Unrest: Key Signals Emerge Amid Growing Tensions

Iran’s energy-rich government is preparing for potential unrest as it grapples with rolling blackouts and escalating gasoline prices. In response to rising public dissatisfaction, the government has briefed its judicial, security, and intelligence services to be ready for any disturbances that may arise.

On Monday, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of Iran’s judiciary, directed the Attorney General and provincial prosecutors to enhance coordination with intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies. This initiative aims to prevent unrest as citizens express growing frustration over power and gas outages. Ejei emphasized the importance of stabilizing security across the nation during a meeting of the Supreme Judicial Council, stating, “The Attorney General and prosecutors across the country, in direct cooperation with the intelligence, security, and law enforcement agencies, should take all appropriate measures and arrangements to stabilize and strengthen the security of the people and citizens, and, as in the past, and even with greater firmness, take the relevant measures so that the enemy’s conspiracy to create insecurity…is neutralized.”

Notably, Ejei is recognized as one of Iran’s most prominent human rights violators. He cautioned President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration that the recent surge of nationwide shutdowns, attributed to severe air pollution and the government’s inability to meet energy demands, could lead to unrest. Citizens are struggling to heat their homes amid the bitter cold, while the cost of living continues to rise, contributing to the worst economic recession in the history of the Islamic Republic.

The Iranian government is on high alert, reminiscent of the protests in 2019 and 2022, during which hundreds of Iranians lost their lives at the hands of security forces and tens of thousands were arrested. Currently, the nation is facing a significant 30% shortfall in natural gas supplies from its Persian Gulf fields. To combat this, the government has resorted to burning the highly polluting heavy oil mazut, which has resulted in dense smog enveloping Tehran and other cities.

Years of under-investment in the energy sector, compounded by technology sanctions imposed by the West, have further exacerbated Iran’s decline in natural gas production. The pressure in Iran’s main production field in the Persian Gulf, which it shares with Qatar, is steadily decreasing. Only the largest Western oil companies possess the technological expertise necessary to alleviate the current situation.

As the crisis escalates, the Pezeshkian administration finds itself with limited options. A comprehensive overhaul of the country’s foreign policy and a commitment to opening its economy to global engagement may be essential steps forward.

The latest wave of economic disturbances began on December 9, leading to widespread closures of schools, universities, and government offices across numerous provinces. The ongoing electricity and fuel crisis, combined with a sharp decline in the national currency’s value since September, has created a volatile public atmosphere.

• Iranians face daily price hikes.
• The government has experienced a series of regional setbacks.
• The unexpected overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad forced Iranian forces to retreat from Syria, reportedly with Russian assistance.

Recent communications indicating that the Iranian government is engaging with Syria’s new ruling parties suggest a growing concern about its diminishing authority and credibility among the public. This decline follows the debacle in Syria and the worsening economic conditions at home. On Sunday, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a speech warning that those in Iran who align themselves with foreign powers, particularly the United States, would face severe consequences. During the 2022 protests, triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini while in police custody for allegedly not adhering to hijab regulations, Khamenei blamed the US and foreign powers for instigating unrest.

Khamenei metaphorically described the situation, stating, “The fools smell the scent of kebab,” indicating his perception of misguided ambitions among those who seek to overthrow the Islamic Republic. He further asserted, “Anyone inside the country who chooses to serve the Americans, the Iranian people will trample them underfoot.”

As Iran navigates this challenging period, the government remains vigilant in its efforts to maintain order and manage public sentiment, while the populace continues to grapple with the dire consequences of ongoing economic and energy crises.