Fall Rainfall Predictions: Below Average Expected, While Winter Brings Normal Levels

As we transition into the fall season, Iran is bracing for significant weather changes that may impact various regions differently. According to the latest updates from Ahad Vazifeh, the head of the Meteorological Organization, the forecast indicates that precipitation during this fall is expected to be below normal. However, winter may bring some relief with a predicted increase in rainfall. This article delves into the details of the current weather predictions, rainfall patterns, and the implications for water resources in Iran.

The current water year commenced on September 23, coinciding with rainfall in northern Iran. Notably, from the start of fall until September 26, the country recorded an average rainfall of 0.5 mm, marking a 19.3 percent increase compared to the long-term average of 0.4 mm.

In addition to rainfall, the average temperature during this period was approximately 1.3°C lower than the long-term average. However, the provinces of Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, and Hormozgan experienced temperatures that exceeded the long-term averages, as reported by the official.

Despite the initial uptick in rainfall, predictions suggest that overall precipitation will fall short of normal levels in many regions. Vazifeh highlighted that rainfall is also expected to commence later than usual, with a delay of around 10 to 15 days.

Here are some key temperature predictions for the upcoming months:

• From October 7 to November 6: Normal temperatures in the eastern half and southern coastal strip, while other areas may experience temperatures 0.5 to 1°C above normal.
• From mid-November to mid-December: Average temperatures are expected to be normal in parts of the eastern and northern strips, with increases of 1-2°C in the west and southwest, and 0.5 to 1°C above normal in other regions.

Looking ahead, rainfall is anticipated to approach normal levels towards the end of fall and throughout the winter months. This period is crucial as winter typically accounts for a significant share of Iran’s annual rainfall, particularly in southern regions, according to Vazifeh.

Reflecting on the previous Iranian water year (March 2023 – March 2024), it was reported that precipitation in southern regions fell between 50 to 75 percent below normal levels. This trend has raised concerns about the country’s water security.

Vazifeh noted that the last five years have seen Iran grappling with consecutive droughts. The preceding water year (September 22, 2024 – September 22, 2025) was particularly alarming, concluding with only 142.3 mm of precipitation, a 39.4 percent decline from the long-term average of 234.9 mm.

In August, rainfall was minimal, with only 4.1 mm recorded nationwide, reflecting a 2.5 percent decrease from the long-term average of 4.2 mm. Throughout the summer, total recorded rainfall reached only 8 mm, which is a notable 27.9 percent decline compared to the long-term figure of 11.1 mm.

These statistics paint a concerning picture of Iran’s water resources. Official reports indicate a significant decline in groundwater levels and dam storage, leading to increased water stress, particularly in densely populated areas. This situation poses serious threats to water security, elevating the risks of land subsidence and exacerbating drought conditions.

The ongoing water crisis in Iran is unprecedented and has far-reaching implications. It threatens not only the agricultural sector but also regional stability and global food markets. As the country navigates these challenging conditions, it is imperative to implement effective water management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of prolonged drought and ensure sustainable water resources for the future.

In conclusion, as Iran prepares for the upcoming fall and winter seasons, monitoring weather patterns and implementing proactive measures will be vital in addressing the looming water crisis. The stakes are high, and the need for action has never been more pressing.