Analyst Warns: Trump’s Policy Could Ignite Turmoil Across the Middle East
In the complex landscape of Middle Eastern politics, Donald Trump’s recent actions are raising eyebrows and igniting debates about his foreign policy effectiveness. Political analyst Oliver Alexander warns that one might “wake up this morning and see the entire Middle East on fire,” highlighting the precarious nature of the region under Trump’s leadership. This commentary was part of an interview with Newsweek, wherein analysts scrutinize Trump’s promises of peace in the Middle East and his handling of escalating conflicts.
Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), also voiced concerns, stating that Trump is “once again deeply enmeshed in the conflicts of the region, playing the very same cards that the Biden administration played and expecting a different outcome.” The intricate dynamics of the Middle East are proving to be a significant challenge for Trump’s administration.
Below is a detailed analysis from Newsweek titled “Trump promised to bring peace to the Middle East. Here’s how it’s going”:
Escalation of Violence in Gaza
Israel’s recent airstrikes on Gaza have marked the end of a ceasefire with Hamas, escalating tensions further. This situation contradicts Trump’s earlier commitment to de-escalate conflict in the region. As Trump re-entered the Oval Office in January, the war intensified between Israel and Hamas following the Palestinian group’s attacks on October 7, 2023.
“Let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” Trump stated in April 2024 amid the ongoing war in Gaza. However, the reality of the situation suggests that achieving peace is a daunting task. Major developments, including:
- Israel’s strikes on Gaza
- Yemeni attacks targeting the USS Harry Truman in the Red Sea
- Ongoing violence in Syria
These events present significant foreign policy challenges for Trump, who initially pledged to act as a broker for stability in the Middle East. His administration’s response to these crises will be crucial in determining the United States’ influence during his term.
The Human Toll and International Reaction
According to the Gaza Health Ministry, more than 400 Palestinians have died as a result of Israel’s airstrikes, which the Israeli military claims are targeted at terrorist entities. This violence has sparked muted responses from the Trump administration, even as the White House was informed of the operations by Israeli officials. National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes asserted that Hamas chose war rather than releasing hostages to extend the ceasefire.
Defense expert Gene Moran has noted that Trump supports Israel’s right to defend itself and conduct military operations as it sees fit. Emmanuel Navon, CEO of the European Leadership Network-Israel (ELNET-Israel), acknowledged a coordinated approach between Trump and Israeli leaders regarding military actions. However, concerns grow as Trump warned that “hell will rain down” if Yemen’s Ansarallah continues its aggression against Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea.
Rising Tensions in the Region
As conflicts escalate, Jamal Abdi emphasized the increasing risks of regional war. He argued that Trump initially helped reduce tensions through diplomatic efforts, leading to a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. However, less than two months into his current administration, Trump appears to be repeating past mistakes.
Political expert Mark Shanahan stated that Trump has shown little interest in the Palestinian cause, instead favoring Israel’s position in its conflict with Hamas. Consequently, this approach may lead to renewed warfare, as Trump’s aggressive stance towards Yemen and threats against Iran might further inflame regional tensions.
Recent Clashes and Broader Implications
On Monday, clashes along the border between Lebanon and Syria resulted in at least seven fatalities and 52 injuries, highlighting the region’s volatility. Earlier violence in Syria marked the most significant unrest since President Bashar al-Assad’s regime faced challenges, with hundreds reported dead due to clashes involving security forces.
Gene Moran pointed out that Trump’s focus doesn’t seem to extend to the Syrian conflict, which may favor outcomes beneficial to Russia, Assad’s ally, particularly concerning access to the Mediterranean through the port in Tartus.
Voices from the Experts
Several experts have weighed in on the current situation:
- Oliver Alexander: “Wake up this morning and see the entire Middle East on fire. Realise I must be still dreaming because Trump ‘fixed’ the Middle East, just as he ‘fixed’ the U.S. economy and stopped the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.”
- Emmanuel Navon: “Nobody in his right mind believes that [Trump] is going to deliver peace in the Middle East because this is the least peaceful region in the world.”
- Gene Moran: “Trump’s view is a little bit longer term than was once promised…he is making things happen, we might not like the way he is doing it.”
- Jamal Abdi: “Not more than two months since taking office, the President finds himself once again deeply enmeshed in the conflicts of the region, playing the very same cards that the Biden administration played and expecting a different outcome.”
Looking Ahead
As international outrage mounts over Israel’s renewed strikes on Gaza, discussions will likely focus on the implications for the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Trump’s support for Israel remains steadfast, but the global community is keenly watching developments in the Red Sea and how Washington will respond to Ansarallah’s attacks on U.S. vessels. The complexities of Middle Eastern geopolitics continue to unfold, posing challenges for Trump’s administration as it navigates this turbulent period.
