Unlocking Peace: A Global Blueprint for Disarming Lebanon

As Lebanon approaches the one-year anniversary of the assassination of resistance leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, a significant political shift is underway. The Lebanese government is now facing a new campaign aimed at “restoring a state monopoly on weapons.” This initiative is being viewed in Washington and Tel Aviv as a technical solution to disarm militias, but in Beirut, it feels like pressure to disarm Hezbollah. The implications of this push have not been thoroughly examined and could lead to serious consequences for Lebanon’s stability.

The mechanism at play is well-known and coercive. External actors are linking political and economic incentives to what they claim is a legitimate goal. This strategy is gaining momentum, with the U.S. advocating for a formal cabinet decision that commits Lebanon to disarmament as a prerequisite for resuming international support and negotiations.

Key points regarding the U.S. push for disarmament include:

• Conditional Support: The U.S. has intensified its efforts to tie reconstruction assistance to security benchmarks, framing it as a partnership.
• Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Role: The LAF is tasked with drafting a plan to centralize arms under state control, a politically sensitive move that could lead to confrontation with well-established groups.
• External Pressure: Donor countries are subtly urging Lebanon to comply with disarmament in exchange for financial and diplomatic support.

However, practical challenges abound. The Lebanese Army is underfunded, fragmented along sectarian lines, and lacks the full capabilities needed to confront armed groups effectively. Rebuilding the army to a point where it can replace Hezbollah’s deterrence will require:

1. Significant financial investment.
2. Time for restructuring and rebuilding.
3. Political coherence among Lebanon’s various factions.

In the meantime, the growing gap between demands and actual capabilities raises concerns about potential outcomes, such as:

• Coercive disarmament efforts leading to violence.
• Defections within the army.
• Localized clashes escalating into national conflicts.

Recent developments illustrate these concerns. The U.S. has authorized “security assistance packages” aimed at enhancing the LAF’s ability to dismantle weapons caches belonging to non-state groups. For instance, a recent Pentagon package worth approximately $14.2 million has been approved to bolster LAF capabilities.

The perception of these military aids is often framed as technical assistance. However, the reality is that they serve to enhance U.S. influence over Lebanon’s military capabilities, raising questions about Lebanese sovereignty. Public sentiment in Lebanon further complicates this narrative. According to an August poll conducted by the Consultative Center for Studies and Documentation:

• A majority of Lebanese oppose disarmament without a credible national defense strategy.
• 71.7% of respondents distrust the army’s ability to defend against Israeli aggression.

This sentiment is deeply rooted in Lebanon’s history of occupation and repeated aggressions. Ignoring public opinion and enforcing disarmament without adequate security guarantees could lead to significant unrest and potential violence.

Two critical strategic logics underpin the concerns raised by critics. The first is the concept of deterrence. Hezbollah’s weapons did not arise in a vacuum but were a response to historical Israeli actions. For many Lebanese, disarming the very entity that has provided a measure of deterrence against further aggression seems counterintuitive in light of ongoing threats.

The second logic is political. Disarmament pursued as a foreign agenda is not a neutral act; it restructures power dynamics within Lebanon, impacting institutional and patronage structures for years. Both logics highlight the complex security dilemmas faced by the Lebanese government.

Opponents of external pressure argue that a true monopoly of force is necessary for a modern state. However, if the state lacks the capacity to ensure security, or if disarmament is tied to external aid, the outcome may not be state-building but rather a means of suppression.

When conditional aid, diplomatic pressure, and military assistance converge to produce a singular political outcome, the façade of state-building erodes, revealing a strategic design aimed at weakening deterrence and normalizing a new regional order. Recent overtures from Riyadh to Beirut, framed as reconstruction diplomacy, effectively serve to distance Lebanon from the Axis of Resistance, thus exemplifying the leverage in play.

The only sustainable solution lies in a negotiated, Lebanese-led national defense strategy that addresses the question of weaponry within a framework of reciprocal security guarantees. This includes:

• Verifiable Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories.
• A phased strengthening of the LAF with clear timelines.
• Transparent reconstruction assistance that is not contingent on immediate disarmament.

Failure to pursue this comprehensive approach risks transforming the goal of restoring state authority into a tool for foreign strategic advantage. Lebanon’s future should not be dictated by external powers, including Washington or Tel Aviv. If the international community genuinely desires a stable and sovereign Lebanon, it must support an inclusive, Lebanese-driven path that reconciles citizens’ security concerns with the practical limitations of the state. Imposing disarmament without considering these factors is likely to lead to backlash and further instability.