Khamenei Leverages Military Power to Ensure Food Security During Escalating Economic Crisis
Iran is facing a significant crisis as political and economic challenges mount, leading the regime to increasingly rely on its armed forces amidst rising poverty and hunger. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has urgently called on the government, headed by Masoud Pezeshkian, to ensure food security for the populace. This directive highlights not only the gravity of the situation but also the regime’s structural inability to effectively manage resources.
In response to the escalating crisis, Mohammad Reza Aref, the regime’s first vice president, has opted to turn to the military instead of pursuing essential structural reforms or tackling the entrenched economic mafias dominating the nation’s wealth. Aref has reached out to the Etka Organization, the economic arm of Iran’s armed forces, to engage in food supply and storage efforts. This decision effectively shifts the responsibility for public sustenance to the military, equating food security with national defense—a clear indication of governance paralysis.
During the inauguration of Etka’s new development projects, Aref referenced Khamenei’s recent cabinet meeting, admitting that the government alone cannot ensure food security. He emphasized, “Although the government has a duty to support the armed forces, the livelihood and economic issues of the people are of fundamental importance.” These comments reflect the regime’s long-standing priority of allocating substantial budgets to military institutions while neglecting the basic needs of its citizens.
The regime’s Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh has confirmed this policy shift, stating that the Defense Ministry must play a role in ensuring food security. However, this decision does not aim to dismantle the monopoly on food imports; rather, it transfers control to the military—an institution typically associated with repression and intervention rather than effective economic management.
Collapse of Agriculture and Food Systems
This pivot towards military involvement in food security comes against the backdrop of a deteriorating food crisis pushing Iran toward a potential collapse. Key natural resources—such as water, fertile soil, and arable land—have faced severe degradation. Issues such as drying wetlands, land subsidence, and declining water tables have devastated agricultural production, leaving millions without access to essential animal protein.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has highlighted that industrial livestock farming—which requires over 15,000 liters of water to produce a single kilogram of beef—is unsustainable in Iran. Per capita water availability has plummeted to less than one-third of the global average. This agricultural model not only depletes vital resources but also contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for 14.5%—more than the entire transport sector. In drought-stricken Iran, the consequences are dire: malnutrition is on the rise, and processed red meat, which the World Health Organization has classified as carcinogenic, remains a staple for many lacking healthier choices.
Stark Admissions from Regime Officials
Regime officials have made alarming admissions regarding the depth of the crisis. Ali Agha Mohammadi, a senior member of the Expediency Council and a close ally of Khamenei, revealed that nearly 20 million Iranians—approximately one-quarter of the population—lack access to basic necessities, including housing, employment, education, healthcare, and food. He pointed out the existence of 2,020 deprived neighborhoods and 874,000 school dropouts, remarking bluntly, “Those who act in the name of religion have destroyed everything.”
Additionally, research from the Iranian parliament indicates that poverty rates have remained above 30%. Poverty has surged from below 30% in 2022 to over 30% in 2023 and 2024, with a widening poverty gap index of 0.28, making it increasingly challenging for citizens to escape destitution. Despite official claims of a 4.5% economic growth rate, real incomes have declined, with half of the population consuming less than the daily standard of 2,100 calories.
Inflation and Escalating Food Costs
According to regime-affiliated economist Hossein Raghfar, inflation could soar to 60% or higher next year, significantly exceeding the government’s estimate of 40%. He attributes this inflationary pressure to currency policies aimed at covering budget deficits rather than addressing workers’ wages, arguing that with wages representing only 10% of production costs, blaming labor is unfounded.
Recent statistics from the Statistical Center of Iran and the Institute of Nutrition reveal that the cost of the minimum monthly food basket reached 11.5 million tomans in August 2025, surpassing the minimum wage of 10.39 million tomans. Key components of this food basket include:
- Dairy: 3.5 million tomans
- Meat: 1.85 million tomans
- Rice: 640,000 tomans
- Fruits: 1.77 million tomans
The basket has seen a month-on-month increase of 4.18% and a year-on-year rise of 56%, putting basic nutrition out of reach for millions of Iranians.
Military Reliance Exposes Regime’s Failure
Delegating food security to the military represents more than a temporary solution; it is a profound acknowledgment of the regime’s failures. Instead of dismantling entrenched mafias, reforming economic structures, or improving international relations to alleviate shortages, Khamenei has again turned to his repressive apparatus. By militarizing the food supply, the regime cannot hide the extent of the crisis. Iran’s degraded resources, widespread hunger, and deepening poverty all signify a nation on the brink of collapse. The regime’s desperate measures only serve to accelerate its downward spiral.
