Significant 43% Decline in Long-Term Summer Rainfall: What It Means for Our Climate

As Iran grapples with the implications of climate change, the recent rainfall statistics reveal a concerning trend in precipitation levels across the country. From June 22 to September 4, Iran recorded only 4.9 mm of rainfall, marking a striking 43 percent decrease from the long-term average of 8.5 mm, according to the Meteorological Organization. This alarming decline in rainfall is indicative of broader environmental challenges that the nation faces.

In its latest report, the Meteorological Organization noted that from August 29 to September 4, the country experienced just 0.7 mm of rainfall. This amount represents a 5.1 percent drop compared to the long-term average of 0.8 mm. The statistics highlight a persistent trend of diminished precipitation, which has severe implications for water resources across Iran.

Looking at the period from August 23 to September 4, a mere 1 mm of precipitation was recorded. This amount is 37.2 percent below the long-term average of 1.6 mm, underscoring the severity of the ongoing drought conditions. Such low rainfall levels have raised concerns about water availability for both agricultural and domestic use.

Moreover, since the start of the current water year, which began on September 23, 2024, Iran has averaged approximately 139.2 mm of rainfall up to September 4. This figure reflects a significant 40.1 percent decrease from the long-term average of 232.2 mm, illustrating the urgent need for water management strategies in response to this ongoing crisis.

• Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan provinces recorded the lowest levels of rainfall, with deficits of 71.3 and 70.7 percent respectively, compared to normal levels.
• Tehran province is also facing a notable decline in precipitation. With a long-term average of 276.2 mm, it has only received 142.5 mm in the current water year, reflecting a 48.4 percent reduction.

In contrast, the previous water year, which ended on September 22, 2024, saw a total rainfall of 252.7 mm, representing a 19 percent increase from the preceding year. Despite this increase, the low precipitation at the start of that water year raised concerns about the overall water supply. Importantly, the volume of rainfall did not sufficiently address the water deficits caused by successive years of drought.

A total of 10 provinces in Iran have reported below-normal rainfall levels, further exacerbating the water scarcity issues faced by the nation. The rainfall recorded during the previous water year—252.7 mm—also shows a 2 percent increase compared to the long-term average of 248.7 mm, indicating some variability in precipitation but not enough to mitigate water shortages.

As Iran continues to experience the consequences of climate change, the pressing need for comprehensive water management and conservation strategies becomes increasingly apparent. Without effective measures, the ongoing drought conditions could lead to more severe water shortages, impacting agriculture, industry, and daily life for millions of Iranians.

In summary, the rainfall statistics from June to early September paint a troubling picture of Iran’s water situation. With significant reductions in precipitation across the country, urgent action is required to address the challenges posed by insufficient rainfall and to implement strategies that ensure sustainable water management for the future.