Is Morgan Ortagus Poised for a Comeback in Beirut?

As Lebanon faces a critical juncture in its political landscape, the recent developments surrounding the U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack and the potential return of Morgan Ortagus have raised significant concerns. The ongoing tension indicates a complex interplay of international and local forces impacting Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability.

Reports suggest that the U.S. administration has accused Saudi envoy Yazid bin Farhan of exerting control over Barrack, leading to speculations about the conclusion of his mission in Lebanon. However, some sources attribute Barrack’s potential removal to mounting pressure from the Lebanese lobby in the United States. This lobby argues that Barrack’s recent threats to annex Lebanon to the Levant undermine the anti-Resistance faction, which advocates for sovereignty and American guarantees to safeguard Lebanon.

Lebanon is currently gearing up for a crucial government session scheduled for Tuesday, where the primary focus will be on the exclusive control of arms by the state. President Joseph Aoun emphasized the importance of this session, stating that it aims to prevent the world from viewing Lebanon as a nation in despair. This meeting is seen as a direct response to pressures from the U.S.

Political analysts are sounding alarms regarding the potential fallout from the escalating political clashes within Lebanon. The nation is already grappling with a myriad of crises that are eroding the financial well-being of its citizens and jeopardizing civil peace.

In parallel, Israel is intensifying its threats, particularly if Lebanon’s government fails to reach a decisive agreement regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. The Israeli government perceives any compromise that appears to favor Hezbollah as detrimental.

As of now, sources from both Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have confirmed their commitment to maintaining a quorum during the upcoming session. They strongly believe in the necessity of dialogue to achieve productive outcomes, particularly regarding arms control.

The Shia alliance has articulated that disarmament is not feasible until Israel fulfills several conditions, including:

• Withdrawal from the five hills
• Ceasing its aggressive attacks
• Releasing prisoners
• Facilitating reconstruction efforts

In light of these tensions, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, known for his consensual approach, is expected to meet with President Aoun shortly. They will likely explore the proposal for the government to establish a principle of arms monopoly rather than outright disarmament. The suggestion includes tasking the Supreme Defense Council with coordinating with the resistance to implement necessary measures.

Recently, MP Mohammad Raad, head of Hezbollah’s Loyalty to the Resistance parliamentary bloc, met with President Aoun to discuss these pressing issues. Raad emphasized the impossibility of acquiescing to American demands given Israel’s obstinacy. He called for a unified stance to confront these external pressures and avoid leading Lebanon into turmoil.

The failure of both Washington and Tel Aviv to achieve their objectives has prompted them to urgently seek final settlements in Lebanon. They are pushing for what they term “arms exclusivity,” particularly under the current pretext of ensuring security.

On the international front, the French embassy in Lebanon marked the 80th anniversary of the Lebanese Army by expressing its commitment to assisting the government in fully controlling its weapons. Meanwhile, the British government has voiced its support for the Lebanese Army, labeling it the sole legitimate defender of Lebanon.

These developments carry multifaceted implications. On one hand, there is pressing international pressure to address the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons. On the other hand, there is a clear acknowledgment that time is not favoring Israel in this geopolitical chess game.

As Lebanon navigates these tumultuous waters, the outcomes of the upcoming government session and the broader geopolitical maneuvers will be pivotal in determining the nation’s future. The stakes are high, and the international community is closely watching how Lebanon will respond to both internal and external pressures.