Is Lebanon Facing a New Wave of Anti-Resistance Unrest Like May 2008?

As Lebanon approaches a crucial ministerial referendum concerning the resistance’s weapons, the nation finds itself echoing the tensions from May 5, 2008. This pivotal moment marked a significant turning point when Fouad Siniora’s government sought to dismantle Hezbollah’s communications network, a vital asset that played a key role in the resistance’s triumph during the July 2006 war.

This controversial decision triggered a reaction from the resistance, leading to clashes with mercenaries linked to the Saudi and U.S. embassies, whose actions aimed to incite a direct confrontation between the resistance and the Lebanese army.

The government claimed that Hezbollah’s telephone communications network was “illegal and constitutes an assault on the state’s sovereignty and public funds.” In response, Siniora’s administration initiated plans for “criminal prosecutions against all individuals, bodies, companies, parties, and entities proven responsible for extending this network,” implying a supposed “Iranian role” in these activities.

Fast forward to 2020, and Druze leader Walid Jumblatt openly acknowledged his part in escalating this conflict through various channels, including media, politics, and military strategies.

In the current political climate, a source close to President Joseph Aoun has reiterated his commitment to civil peace and the necessity of dialogue. He emphasizes that Lebanon deserves to seek guarantees in exchange for disarming the resistance.

• Israeli Minister’s Statements: Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has declared that “the Israeli army will not withdraw from the five points in southern Lebanon,” assuring that “the residents of the north will no longer see Hezbollah on the fence.”
• “Strengthening the North” Conference: During a recent conference in the northern occupied Palestinian territories, Smotrich asserted that the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon “granted Israel full legitimacy to weaken Hezbollah.”
• Destruction Threats: Smotrich further threatened, “If necessary, we will demolish buildings in broad daylight. There is no safe zone.”

Commenting on the extensive damage inflicted by Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, Smotrich stated, “The Shiite villages destroyed by the Israeli army will not be rebuilt.”

Amidst President Aoun’s desire to uphold internal stability, political sources have disclosed that a meeting involving Jumblatt, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea, and other influential parties has resolved to adhere to the government’s plan of disarming the resistance according to a precise timetable. This strategy aims to gain favor with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

During his recent visit to Beirut, U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack urged these factions to take whatever internal measures necessary to apply pressure on Hezbollah, intending to set the Lebanese army against the resistance.

Simultaneously, anti-resistance media outlets continue to disseminate warnings of impending Israeli escalation unless the government decisively acts to disarm Hezbollah, coinciding with internal political provocation.

An informed source has indicated that the Amal-Hezbollah alliance may withdraw from the government if it pursues actions that distance itself from its popular base. Such a withdrawal, the source cautioned, would significantly undermine the government’s legitimacy, perceived as a betrayal of a major sectarian constituency—specifically, the Shiite community. This community is deeply apprehensive about the potential for sectarian violence reminiscent of the massacres witnessed in Syria.

As Lebanon and the surrounding region navigate a precarious situation, the upcoming cabinet session is far from the only threat. There are additional factors that underscore the relentless efforts of Washington and Riyadh to destabilize Lebanon’s internal security.

In conclusion, Lebanon stands at a crossroads, where the decisions made in the coming days could have far-reaching implications for its political landscape and social fabric. With the backdrop of historical tensions and external pressures, the nation must tread carefully to maintain peace and security.