Washington Increases Pressure on Lebanon as Parliamentary Elections Loom

As Lebanon faces increasing pressure from the United States regarding its arms monopoly, the situation is becoming more precarious. U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack has urged the Lebanese government to “act immediately” in order to maintain credibility and address ongoing tensions with Hezbollah. In his recent statements, Barrack emphasized that the Lebanese government must align its actions with its principles, particularly the need for the state to have a monopoly on arms.

In his comments on X, Barrack stated: “The credibility of Lebanon’s government rests on its ability to match principle with practice. As its leaders have said repeatedly, it is critical that ‘the state has a monopoly on arms.’” He further warned that “as long as Hezbollah retains arms, words will not suffice.” This call to action indicates a sense of urgency, as the envoy noted that the Lebanese government and Hezbollah must fully commit to resolving the arms issue to avoid further destabilization.

During his visit, Barrack notably avoided discussing any guarantees that Israel would refrain from attacking Lebanon. This silence has led analysts to interpret his remarks as pessimistic, suggesting that Hezbollah is unlikely to relinquish its weapons and is instead attempting to buy time while focusing on developments in southern Syria, where Israel is aiming to increase its influence.

Some experts caution that Washington should tread carefully in this complex environment. They argue that the current phase necessitates the preservation of the HTS-led government to achieve several strategic objectives, including:

• Elimination of Iranian influence in the region
• Disruption of military supplies to Hezbollah
• Establishment of a secure barrier between Syria and Iraq

Analysts warn that fostering division and chaos could inadvertently allow Tehran and Hezbollah to strengthen their foothold in Syria, as Iran has historically shown resilience in turning adversity to its advantage. With looming parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026, experts predict that Lebanon may soon face heightened financial and economic pressures, alongside potential political assassinations and attacks.

President Joseph Aoun has reportedly reached out to Hezbollah to discuss the arms issue, indicating a willingness to engage in dialogue. He stressed the importance of holding parliamentary elections on schedule, asserting that “the representation of Lebanese diaspora is a matter for Parliament.”

The ongoing conflict over the implementation of Article 112 of Law 44/2017 is adding to the tensions. This law allocates six parliamentary seats to non-residents of Lebanon, who can only vote for candidates in the 128 seats if they do so within Lebanese territory. Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi’s recent comments have further escalated the conflict among Christian factions, especially in support of the Lebanese Forces’ position. He argued that limiting expatriates to six parliamentary seats undermines their connection to their homeland and their right to participate in political life.

Patriarch al-Rahi stated, “This issue is a process of exclusion that negates the natural right of expatriates to vote in all electoral districts… Diaspora residents aspire to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections with complete freedom in their electoral districts wherever they are registered in Lebanon. To protect internal unity, this article must be repealed from the current electoral law.”

The Lebanese Forces have seized upon al-Rahi’s remarks, with MP George Okais suggesting that they might disrupt the elections if Article 112 is upheld. Notably, the largest bloc of expatriate voters traditionally consists of Christians, largely due to fears among the pro-Resistance diaspora, particularly Lebanese Shiites, of persecution and intimidation.

According to a study by researcher Muhammad Shams al-Din from International Information, France had the highest voter turnout in the 2022 elections, with approximately 20,000 registered voters, followed closely by the UAE (18,119), Canada (18,023), and the United States (15,740).

As the government led by Nawaf Salam returns from Paris, it has faced criticism for not fulfilling its electoral responsibilities. Salam conveyed a proposal to Speaker Nabih Berri, calling for a special cabinet session to announce Lebanon’s commitment to monopolizing arms control within the state. He argued that this move would help prevent the withdrawal of UNIFIL from the south and deter any escalatory rhetoric from Washington that could lead to renewed Israeli aggression against Lebanon.

The UNIFIL mandate is set for renewal at the end of next month, amidst increasing pressure for Lebanon to amend its role, potentially granting UNIFIL unrestricted access without the escort of the Lebanese army—a demand primarily driven by Israel. Barrack’s threats have been coupled with an anti-Resistance media campaign, reportedly instigated by the American embassy in Beirut, which has urged stakeholders to apply maximum pressure on Hezbollah.

In response, Druze leader Walid Jumblatt remarked, “Hezbollah must be convinced that retaining heavy weapons will bring disaster to Lebanon.” The situation in Lebanon remains tense, with the future of its political landscape hanging in the balance as various factions grapple with both internal divisions and external pressures.