Tehran Faces Dual Challenges: Escalating Earthquake Threat Compounds City’s Struggles
Recent earthquakes near Tehran have highlighted the growing risk of a catastrophic earthquake in the capital, which is precariously situated on active fault lines. This alarming situation adds to the residents’ concerns as they also face challenges such as water shortages, power outages, and worsening air pollution.
On March 14, two earthquakes measuring 3.0 and 3.3 on the Richter scale struck Varamin, a densely populated and economically challenged town located southeast of Tehran. Although the tremors were felt in the southern parts of the capital, there were no reported casualties.
Just a day prior, a member of Iran’s International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) had issued a stark warning regarding Tehran’s vulnerability to a significant earthquake. Seismologist Fariborz Nateghollahi emphasized that a magnitude 7.0 quake could potentially lead to up to six million casualties. He criticized the government’s crisis management strategies, pointing out the lack of adequate disaster preparedness and training.
Tehran’s Seismic Vulnerability
Greater Tehran, home to over 10 million residents, is situated in a seismically active zone marked by three main fault lines, along with numerous smaller ones. A study conducted in collaboration with the Japan Cooperation Agency (JICA) revealed that these fault lines could unleash earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater, potentially destroying up to half of the city’s infrastructure.
Seismologists, including Nateghollahi, have consistently warned that, based on historical seismic cycles, these fault lines could activate at any moment. A 2018 study by the IIEES estimated a 40–70% likelihood of a significant earthquake occurring within a 100-kilometer radius of central Tehran within the next two to twelve years.
The last major earthquake to impact what is now Greater Tehran occurred in 1830, registering a magnitude of 7.1 and striking the village of Shemiran. Over the years, Shemiran has evolved into one of the capital’s wealthiest districts, now populated with high-rise buildings, government offices, and shopping centers.
High-Risk Areas
The southeastern segment of Tehran, located on a major fault line, is regarded as the city’s most vulnerable area. This region is characterized by:
- Densely packed old buildings
- Narrow streets that would impede rescue efforts during a major earthquake
- Land subsidence caused by a significant drop in underground water levels over the decades
A Capital Under Strain
Authorities report a staggering 47% decline in rainfall in Tehran province, marking the worst drought in 57 years. This reduction has severely diminished the water reserves of several dams that provide drinking water to the city. Recent images revealed that the Karaj Dam, one of the largest in the region, has nearly run dry. These dams also play a crucial role in electricity generation for the capital, which has been grappling with regular power outages in recent months.
Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have frequently discussed the necessity of relocating the country’s capital due to its extreme susceptibility to major earthquakes. In addition to seismic risks, the capital is increasingly threatened by dwindling water resources, land subsidence from declining groundwater levels, and severe air pollution—all of which pose a significant threat to the city’s future.
A History of Devastation
Iran ranks among the most seismically active nations globally, with around 575 identified fault lines. Earthquakes of varying magnitudes are not uncommon and often lead to considerable loss of life and destruction. Notable historical earthquakes include:
- In 1990, a 7.4 magnitude earthquake struck Manjil and Roudbar in the Caspian mountains, resulting in the deaths of between 35,000 and 50,000 people.
- Thirteen years later, a 6.6 magnitude earthquake devastated the southeastern city of Bam, claiming at least 34,000 lives.
As Tehran continues to grapple with its precarious situation, both natural and infrastructural vulnerabilities pose serious concerns for its inhabitants. The urgent need for improved preparedness and effective crisis management has never been more evident.
