Missing the Mark: No Alternative Plans for JCPOA Development in Sight

In a recent discussion focused on Iran’s nuclear future, Mikhail Ulyanov, the Russian permanent representative, expressed grave concerns about potential upheavals surrounding Iran in the year 2025. This critical insight underscores the urgent need for diplomatic engagement regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Ulyanov highlighted the impending expiration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and UN Security Council resolution 2231 on October 18, which currently govern Iran’s nuclear activities. He emphasized that there is no viable replacement plan in sight, nor are there efforts underway to develop one. This situation raises significant alarm over the future of nuclear negotiations and Iran’s compliance with international agreements.

Key points discussed by Ulyanov include:

• The looming expiration of the JCPOA and resolution 2231, which has left a vacuum in nuclear governance.
• The absence of any substantial efforts to create a new framework to replace the JCPOA.
• The need for a comprehensive assessment report from Europe and the United States regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
• The potential for the automatic resumption of sanctions against Iran by the UN if accusations of non-compliance arise.
• The possibility that Iran may withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in response to these developments.

During the deliberations at the Valdai International Club, which focused on atomic energy and the outcomes of the recent IAEA Board of Governors meeting, Ulyanov stressed the importance of dialogue. He remarked, “If there is no dialogue as before, and there hasn’t been one since the summer of 2022, if this situation with the absence of dialogue persists, I’m afraid there will be trouble.” This statement highlights the precarious nature of the current diplomatic landscape.

Ulyanov further noted that without clear communication from the United States, the chances of escalating tensions remain high. He stated, “An uncontrolled escalation is quite likely at any moment.” This assertion reflects the urgency for renewed negotiations to avoid potential conflict and ensure stability in the region.

In conclusion, the future of Iran’s nuclear program hangs in the balance as critical deadlines approach. The lack of a replacement for the JCPOA, combined with the risk of renewed sanctions and Iran’s potential withdrawal from the NPT, signals a precarious future. The need for robust diplomatic efforts is more pressing than ever to foster a peaceful resolution and maintain international nuclear safety.

In summary, the ongoing dialogue and negotiations surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions are crucial. As Ulyanov emphasized, a lack of communication could lead to dire consequences. Stakeholders in the international community must prioritize engagement to navigate these complex challenges effectively.