Rainfall Plummets: A 42% Decline Shakes Weather Patterns

As the water year progresses, Iran’s rainfall statistics reveal a concerning trend. From September 23, 2024, to February 28, the nation has seen a significant decline in precipitation, with recorded rainfall totaling only 78.8 mm. This marks a 42.9% decrease from the long-term average of 137.9 mm, highlighting the ongoing challenges related to water scarcity in the region.

The latest data from the Metrological Organization indicates that over the past week, which ended on February 28, Iran received just 3 mm of rain. This figure represents a striking 57.4% decrease compared to the long-term average of 7 mm. Additionally, from February 19 to February 28, the country recorded approximately 5.2 mm of rainfall, showing a 45.1% decline compared to the long-term average of 9.4 mm.

When considering the winter season, the recorded rainfall until February 28 amounted to 44.9 mm, which is 43% less than the normal expected amount of 78.8 mm. Despite this bleak outlook, two provinces—South Khorasan and Mazandaran—have experienced a slight increase in rainfall, with an average rise of 8.8 mm over the long-term average.

In stark contrast, other provinces have faced significant shortfalls in precipitation. Notably, Kohgiluyeh–Boyerahmad province has recorded the lowest rainfall, with a staggering 73% decrease compared to normal levels. Similarly, Tehran province has also been affected, receiving only an average of 82.8 mm this water year, which reflects a 39.8% decline from the long-term average of 146.7 mm.

Comparison with Previous Water Year

The previous water year, which spanned from September 22, 2023, to September 22, 2024, concluded with a total of 252.7 mm of precipitation. This figure demonstrates a 19% increase compared to the preceding year. Although the initial months of the previous water year showed low precipitation levels, conditions improved significantly as time progressed.

Nonetheless, despite the increase, the persistent drought conditions over consecutive years have led to a situation where the rise in rainfall has not sufficiently addressed the water deficit facing the nation. Reports indicate that ten provinces received less than normal rainfall, exacerbating the water shortage crisis.

Key Rainfall Statistics

• Current Water Year (Sept 23, 2024 – Feb 28, 2025): 78.8 mm of rainfall
• Long-term Average: 137.9 mm
• Recent Weekly Rainfall: 3 mm (57.4% decrease)
• Rainfall from Feb 19 – Feb 28: 5.2 mm (45.1% decrease)
• Total Winter Rainfall: 44.9 mm (43% less than normal)
• Lowest Rainfall Province: Kohgiluyeh–Boyerahmad (73% decrease)
• Tehran’s Rainfall: 82.8 mm (39.8% decrease)
• Previous Water Year Total: 252.7 mm (19% increase)

As Iran continues to grapple with its water crisis, it is essential for authorities and stakeholders to assess water management strategies and implement effective solutions. The decrease in rainfall underscores the urgent need for conservation efforts and sustainable practices to mitigate the impact of water scarcity on communities across the nation.

In summary, the rainfall data paints a troubling picture of Iran’s water situation as the current water year unfolds. With significant deviations from long-term averages and several provinces experiencing alarming drops in precipitation, addressing water management challenges is more critical than ever.